Former President Trump is leading President Biden in seven key battleground states, according to new surveys from Emerson College Polling/The Hill.
Trump boasts slim, single-digit advantages in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — though the difference is within each survey’s margin of error. Snagging the edge in these key states is a good sign for Trump, though they echo forecasts of a razor-thin race that could come down to a handful of battlegrounds.
Trump is up roughly 5 points in North Carolina, with around 47 percent to Biden’s 42 percent. In Arizona, the Republican is up 4 points, with 48 percent to Biden’s 44 percent.
Trump is also ahead by 3 points in Georgia, with 47 percent to Biden’s 44 percent, and by 2 points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent in each.
The Republican is also leading by 1 point in Michigan, with 45 percent to Biden’s 44 percent.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.”
Trump gets a bit more of a boost in some states when undecided voters are asked to pick which candidate they’re leaning toward. With leaners included, Trump is up by around 4 points in Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina — and leading by 3 points in Wisconsin and Georgia.
Support is also pulled away from Biden more than from Trump in five states when third-party candidates are added to the ballot — Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Support is pulled evenly from both Biden and Trump when third-party contenders are considered in Arizona and Michigan.
Biden and Trump have each crossed the delegate threshold to become their respective party nominees, teeing up a rematch of their 2020 race this November. Both candidates have been crisscrossing the country to visit these key battlegrounds, as polling indicates just about a half-dozen states will determine who takes the Oval Office next year.
Other recent polls have shown Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in battleground states as the race ramps up, and polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill show the pair separated by less than a single point, with Trump scoring the slight edge.
Trump appears to fare slightly better when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added into the mix, according to those averages, though new NBC News polling suggests third-party candidates could actually do more damage to Trump than to Biden.
Roughly half a year out from Election Day, Trump is in on trial — the first criminal trial of a former president kicked off earlier this month in Manhattan as a jury weighs a case related to a hush money payment made by Trump’s former fixer back in the 2016 cycle. Trump faces the possibility of conviction on felony charges of falsifying business documents.
A plurality of voters in all seven swing states surveyed by Emerson College Polling/The Hill consider the trial appropriate to hold the former president accountable, though a majority of Republicans in the polls said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to support Trump in 2024.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill polls from each state include 1,000 registered voters and have a credibility interval, similar to the poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percent. The polls were fielded April 25-29, 2024.
Alex Thompson 
Samantha Parker
Trump appears to have a slight lead over Biden in the battleground states, but the margin is narrow. It’s interesting to see the dynamics shifting slightly, especially with undecided voters making their decisions. The race is indeed shaping up to be a close one.