Murders are down about 20 percent in more than 200 cities across the country, according to a recent analysis from criminal justice consulting firm AH Analytics.
The analysis of 208 cities found that murders are down 20.4 percent in 2024 when compared to last year, as of Tuesday. This comes after President Biden touted falling U.S. crime rates last month after new FBI data showed crime in cities with more than 1 million people dropped 11 percent in 2023.
Philadelphia has seen a 37 percent decrease in homicides compared to last year, as of April 14, the data found. New York City has seen a 23 percent drop, Washington D.C. has seen a 25 percent decrease and Detroit has seen a 28 percent downtick, according to the most recent data. Baltimore saw about a 37 percent decrease in homicides.
Analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Analytics, told The Wall Street Journal that the downward trend in murders mirrors the sharp declines in the mid-1990s.
“There’s just a ton of places that you can point to that are showing widespread, very positive trends,” Asher said. “Nationally, you’re seeing a very similar situation to what you saw in the mid-to-late ’90s. But it’s potentially even larger in terms of the percentages and numbers of the drops.”
The FBI statistics released last month showed that murders in large cities dropped by 13 percent in 2023 after spiking in 2020. Homicides in 2020 jumped 30 percent from the previous year, according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report.
However, some large cities reported a rise in homicides, according to the data. Los Angeles saw about a 9 percent increase in homicides as of April 11. Other cities, like Atlanta, Ga., Birmingham, Ala. and Charlotte, N.C., also saw increases, according to the data, which was based on statistics from police departments across the country.
Jamie Roberts
What factors do you think have contributed to this significant decrease in murders across these urban hubs?
It’s likely a combination of factors such as increased community policing initiatives, better economic conditions, and improved access to social services that have contributed to the decrease in murders. This positive trend reflects a concerted effort from both law enforcement and community organizations to address crime and enhance public safety.