After a steep decline, then negative revisions, Industrial Production is about where it was in June. This action makes for interesting charts.
The headlines are amusing.
It’s easy to spin this however you want.
Industrial Production Percent Change Month-Over-Month
Industrial Production Index Since 1972
The manufacturing index peaked at 106.44 in December of 2007.
Recession watchers please note the Great Recession started one month after the peak. Manufacturing is still 5.9 percent below that high.
Industrial Production Index Since 2022
Manufacturing this cycle peaked at 101.02 in October of 2022.
Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Manufacturing durable goods are durable goods used in manufacturing, not consumer durable goods like appliances.
Hurricane Beryl
Some of the decline-rebound is due to hurricane Beryl smashed into Houston. But can that realistically account for motor vehicles?
Motor vehicles have added to the volatility of retail sales as well.
For discussion, please see Retail Sales Rise a Feeble 0.1 Percent, Yet Generally Better than Expected
Note that Motor vehicles sales are counted when the manufacturers ship cars to the dealer, not when a consumer purchases them.