Two Fed members project no more cuts this year. The median projection is a Fed Funds Rate of 4.4. percent at the end of the year.
The above imaged is from the Fed Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
Fed Summary of Economic Projections
The Fed projects the unemployment rate will hit 4.4 percent this year.
The current unemployment rate is 4.1 percent.
Unemployment Rate
Asymmetric Policy Adjustments
One key take away from today’s report is the Fed’s asymmetric policy decisions. At the first sign of trouble, the Fed is cutting rates by a half-point.
When inflation was soaring the Fed kept QE going on schedule to the bitter end and started hiking in baby steps with inflation soaring.
This is how and why the Fed fuels asset bubbles of increasing amplitude over time.
Spotlight Jobs
August 22: A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
September 6: Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions
September 7: BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months
September 9: Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession
In July, I thought the Fed would cut rates 50 basis points today. I want to repeat that was an expectation of what the Fed would do, not what I thought was the proper economic policy.