Wed. May 29th, 2024

Where Are 10-Year US Treasury Yields Headed?

Tyler Mitchell By Tyler Mitchell May19,2024 #finance

Jim Bianco at Bianco Research thinks there is one more push higher in long-term yields. Then if sentiment is extreme, he will go long.

US 10-Year Treasury chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish

Thoughts From Bianco

Going to a Neutral Stance

No Capitulation

A Chance to Go Long

Risk-Reward Thinking

I like this kind of thinking. Trying to get the last ounce out of a trade is often wrong. It’s possible a near-term top in yields is already in. Perhaps not.

The Fed has surely made a mess of things. So has the Biden administration with sponsored inflation in everything he does (excessive fiscal stimulus, poor energy policy, regulatory madness, student loan cancellations, Inflation Reduction Act, tariffs, etc., all highly inflationary)

But no one knows what the market will do. So, for Bianco, it’s now wait and see.

Jim did not say, but I suspect the next move lower may be a counter-trend. To those who suggest inflation is transitory, I suggest the recent decline in year-over-year inflation may be what’s transitory.

He is not trapped in a one way funnel. He was short and is now looking to go long US Treasuries. I suspect for a trade, not a long-term bet.

But “Will discuss more when/if we get above 5.00%.”

Thanks Jim! That was understandable guidance people can use.

In case you missed it, here is some guidance we can do without: Forward Guidance: The Fed Sounds Like a Wizard Reading Chicken Bones

Tyler Mitchell

By Tyler Mitchell

Tyler is a renowned journalist with years of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, entertainment, and technology. His insightful analysis and compelling storytelling have made him a trusted source for breaking news and expert commentary.

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2 thoughts on “Where Are 10-Year US Treasury Yields Headed?”
  1. Where did 5.00% – 5.50% come from? Is it really possible for there to be another push higher in long-term yields as mentioned by Jim Bianco?

    1. Hi EmilyWonders, the 5.00% – 5.50% range mentioned by Jim Bianco comes from the belief that the 40-year bond bull market is over and a multi-year bond bear market is continuing. He expects a potential push higher in long-term yields before a possible shift in sentiment. It’s always crucial to stay informed and analyze multiple perspectives before making investment decisions.

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