Let’s discuss a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.
Political Will
Brooks: “When someone tells you that sanctions can’t and won’t work, that’s basically pro-Russian propaganda. Are we seriously to believe that nothing can be done to stop the shameful flood of transshipments to Russia via Central Asia? Come on. This is just about a lack of political will.“
I am pretty sure that “someone” is me because we have gone round and round on this.
When someone tells you that sanctions do work. Ask them for evidence.
A Cynical Discussion
Other Replies to Brooks
My favorite reply to Brooks was: “Is this satire?”
A close runner-up is “You have no idea how trade works, do you?”
The unfortunate answers are No, and Yes, in that order.
Thanks to @USRoute41, @Grizzen13, @robin_j_brooks, @KoskovicsZ
Capital Flows
Point Worth Discussing
What About Time?
Thanks for an excellent question. Time is an excellent point worth discussing.
First, please note that we did not drive Castro out of Cuba, Maduro out of Venezuela, get Iran to back off nuclear weapons, or get Putin out of Ukraine.
Recent sanctions did drive China, Russia, and India closer together.
But we did impose short-term hardships on Russia. Russia had to develop new supply routes to India and China. That took time.
But ultimately, who suffered more, Russia or the EU?
And instead of western companies collecting insurance on tankers, Russia bought tankers from Greece. Brooks supported those insurance sanctions and now complains they are not working. What a hoot.
In the case of Iran, Trump’s own advisors and the EU said Iran was honoring the agreement. Trump tore the agreement up, imposed sanctions, and now Iran is close to building a nuclear weapon. Perhaps Iran already has.
The US put sanctions on China. So instead of China buying NVDIA chips, China has developed its own chip making capacity. Yep, China is still far behind, but is that a victory of sanctions? For how long?
When Trade Ends, Wars Start
One of the Three Reasons Japan Attacked Peal Harbor was the US cut off Japan’s access to oil and natural resources. War became inevitable. Japan chose to strike first.
The US and China are in a global trade war. And the EU is on the verge of joining that trade war, egged on by the US.
However, the end game is easy to spot. Either China will be successful at advanced chip production at a pace that satisfies China, or China will move to take Taiwan by force.
All It Takes
All it takes is the political will of: Brazil, India, Germany, Poland, Greece, the US, Dubai (on NVDIA access), Australia (on NVDIA access), Poland, Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Kyrgyzstan.
India and China also have to agree to pay higher than necessary prices for coal, natural gas, and oil.
Q: Is that all?
A: No
The EU is structured such that it takes unanimous agreement to enforce sanctions. So every county in the EU would have to have the “political will”.
To top it off, hard enforcement would be to the detriment of many of the above countries.
Thus, not only does Brooks fail to understand how trade works, he fails to understand how the EU works.
Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets
September 19, 2023: Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets
A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.
It seems we needed to review that.
September 4, 2023: US Sanctions Fail Again, China Now Produces Its Own Advanced Computer Chips
Trump and Biden both tried to cut off China’s supply of advanced microchips. So China is now producing its own.
Yep, China is still far behind. But we prodded China to makes its own chips and they are of increasingly good quality. That will take time.
December 29, 2023: How Russia Makes a Mockery of US Sanctions in One Picture
Unprecedented US and EU sanctions against Russia have had no impact on Russia’s oil exports or revenue. Who’s the beneficiary?
May 21, 2024: Another Sanction Failure: The US Blacklisted Xiaomi Three Years Ago Now it Makes EVs
Just three years ago, the Chinese company Xiaomi decided to build cars. It succeeded where Apple failed.
June 4, 2024: Chip Wars, China’s Goal Is to Cut Out the US
The US is restricting China’s access to advanced microchips. The US will regret the move in one of two ways. China will become self-reliant or there will be a real war.
June 11, 2024: Russia to Export Coal to India Via Iran. It’s a 4 Alarm Bells Fire
Hello sanction lovers. What are you going to do about this?
August 26, 2024: China Gains Secret Access to Nvdia Microchips by Renting Computers
The US has blocked export of Nvdia chips to China. But where there’s profit, there’s a way.
When Have Sanctions Ever Worked?
I cited Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia, and China as examples of sanctions that failed.
I then asked Brooks for examples where sanctions achieved the political goals.
I am still waiting for a response from Brooks.
Synopsis
People like Robin Brooks sit in their ivory towers, with no understanding of how trade works, no understanding of how the EU functions, oblivious to the message of the recent Election in Brandenburg, oblivious to the message of the recent Elections in Thuringia and Saxony, oblivious to the message of the recent Election in France, oblivious to the reality that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s approval rating is a record low 18 percent (and why that is), then demand other countries pay a huge price when their leaders are getting booted for doing that, just to appease what Brooks in his ivory tower, at no cost to himself, thinks is fair, when citizens in the US would much rather money be spent here, and the overwhelming message from the EU is people are sick of the whole damn thing.
Dear Robin Brooks, thanks for inspiring the longest sentence I have ever written.
Now please study up on how trade works, how the EU functions (and doesn’t), and why sanctions don’t work. Then get the out of your ivory tower demanding others pay a huge price for your wishes when they, not you, are paying the price.
Thank You.