In the wake of Hurricane Helene, Florida faces another direct hit. Check out the new AI model.
Extreme Impacts
AccuWeather reports ‘Extreme impacts’: Milton to become major hurricane, barrel ashore near Tampa Bay midweek
A state of emergency has been declared in Florida ahead of Milton, which is forecast to plow into the western peninsula on Wednesday as a major hurricane, packing wind gusts up to 140 mph and 15 feet of storm surge.
Just days after the devastating impacts of Hurricane Helene, another significant tropical threat to the U.S. is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather hurricane experts are warning that Milton, now a tropical storm, will strengthen into a major hurricane and plow ashore in the west-central Florida peninsula later this week.
Impacts ranging from a devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts, pounding surf and tornadoes are expected in Florida as Milton moves through during the middle of the week. Because of the risk, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency and is urging that preparations to protect life and property should begin immediately.
“The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene,” added AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “The deep, warm waters can act like rocket fuel for Milton, allowing for rapid intensification.”
AI Model
From Meteorologist Bryan Bennett
MOST ACCURATE MODEL: I’ve been watching the brand new (experimental) EC-AIFS model this season. It has, hands down, outperformed legacy models. It’s an artificial intelligence deep learning model created by ECMWF. So, it is an improved version of the already powerhouse European model.
➡️ With Helene, four days out from landfall it was only 50 miles off of the eventual landfall. The GFS (American) model was 300 miles off.
FORECAST:
➡️ The overnight run of the EC-AIFS model has the storm making landfall into Sarasota County.
➡️ There is still a considerable spread in the other, also reliable, models and the NHC forecast cone includes most of the Florida peninsula.
BOTTOM LINE:
➡️ The EC-AIFS will likely be accurate to within 50-100 miles of its current prediction. This does include a potential direct hit to St. Petersburg/Clearwater/Tampa to the north and Fort Myers vicinity to the south.
➡️ Everyone in the Florida peninsula should be preparing for this storm. We’re looking at a landfall on Wednesday.
➡️ As always, follow guidance from the NHC and local officials.
Records Shattered
Florida Storm Chasers
Prepare Now
Milton Piles on After Helene
Hurricane tracking is among the best uses of AI, excellent predictive capability and no fact checking errors. Models will improve.
Please prepare. Best wishes.