Russia’s decision to expel six British diplomats was part of a desperate attempt to dissuade the UK from sanctioning Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles , Britain’s former ambassador to Russia said last night.
Speaking in Cambridge, where he attended the Raegan Jackson security dialogue. Sir Laurie Bristow said Russia’s concerns go far beyond just Ukraine to its “sense of place in the world”.
Sir Laurie was ambassador in Moscow when Vladimir Putin ordered the poisoning of Sergey Skripol in Salisbury. That incident in 2018 resulted in the initial expulsion of 23 Russian diplomats from London – the largest number since the Cold War in 1985.
Last night Sir Laurie acknowledged that relations between Moscow and the West – and particularly Britain – are languishing at their “lowest point “ but added: “We are not looking at a Putin who is preparing for nuclear strikes. He just wants to constrain us.”
Despite citing bogus “spying” charges, Friday’s expulsion of six members of the British embassy was deliberately timed to give a message to PM Sir Keir Starmer as he met with US President Joe Biden in Washington.
Top of the agenda was a discussion on the implications of allowing Ukraine to deploy British Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory.
Britain has already supplied hundreds of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. While they boast a range of 155 miles, they were given on condition that they were not to be fired into Russia,
According to military sources, Sir Keir has been advised by his top military advisors to agree to the proposals, and is “minded to do so”.
But a final decision depended on President Joe Biden. And The PM was forced to leave without a green light.
One obstacle, sources say, is the need for President Biden to secure an off-ramp to any potential escalation. Crucially, however, he must also find a way of justifying any change of heart after steadfastly refusing potentially escalotary moves since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Vladimir Putin has warned that “Nato will be at war with Russia” if the decision is taken to allow missiles to strike deep into Russian territory.
And Putin lackey Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as the deputy chairman of of the Security Council of Russia, stated that allowing the use of long-range missiles would give Russia grounds to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Despite the rhetoric, however, Moscow has no desire for war with the West, said Sir Laurie.
“There is a difference between conflict and war. We have had conflict with Russia for a long time, but Putin has been using sub-threshold tactics,” he said.
“In my time Putin has used chemical weapons to poison Alexander Litvinenko and Skripol, launched cyber attacks and interfered with elections. He has been using the weakness of an open society to attack it, rather than attacking its strengths.”
Sir Laurie, who was Britain’s Ambassador to the Russian Federation between 2016-2020, acknowledged that “the degree of hostility between Russia and the West – and particularly the UK – is higher than at any time. It is unprecedented.”
While Moscow possesses the world’s largest nuclear power and controls large armed forces, however, he said that the West now knows much more than it did in 2022 about the extent to which Putin could be pushed.
“It is important to understand what is going on,’ he said.
“Russia‘s military and strategic planners are as good as ours. The Kremlin is under no illusion about what would follow if they use nuclear weapons,. The Americans have made it clear in public and in private. China have made it clear that it is not in their interest.
“They know that the utility of nuclear weapons is about constraining opponents – using them is a completely different matter.
“When Putin uses the nuclear threat, it is to play on public opinion in the West. The effect they’re looking for is for voters to tell governments to back off. It is about trying to force us to constrain our actions.”
Sir Laurie rejected claims that Putin is awaiting a Trump victory in November.
“Putin had very high expectations of Trump once, but those expectations were largely dashed when he realised he could not manipulate Trump as much as he thought he could.
“I don’t think Putin has high expectations on either candidate. What he is doing is settling in for a long period of severa and possibly escalating confrontation with West.”