Drummond says Beijing may look to move before the start of a possible Donald Trump second term, who has made attacks on China’s dominance a pillar of his campaigning.
“If I were China, the time to attack would be the “interregnum” period between a US election in November and a new administration taking over in January,” he said.
“Of course, a Trump victory is looking more likely – and we all know where he stands on China – so maybe China seizing Taiwan now would be easier to achieve.
“Finally, if China does attack, it will likely succeed, but would pay a price in terms of casualties and lost military capability.
In the event of an attack by Beijing, we would “likely see general mobilisation across NATO,” he warned.
Asked about China’s chilling show of force this week, former Conservative leader Ian Duncan-Smith said it is “very clear that it intends to take Taiwan back one way or another and is using this opportunity to threaten Taiwan again with new military exercises.
“China is at the centre of an axis of totalitarian states – North Korea, Russia and Iran. That evil axis has created both the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and this will be yet another huge distraction to the West.”
He said he was also of the view that as it will be a “very dangerous time” as the US election goes into a “limbo period.”
“We must be very clear we are ready to respond to any threats from China,” he added.
China’s two-day tests are the most significant show of force since Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, took office.
Lai, who is viewed with contempt by Beijing for his defiant pro-independence stance, has been labelled a “dangerous separatist” by Chinese officials.
The PLA began the exercises on Thursday, deploying naval ships and jets, branding it as “a strong punishment for separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.”
China claims the self-governed country as part of its territory, and its repeated threats to seize the island have been met with firm warnings from the US and Taiwan’s regional allies.
It’s feared that an invasion of Taiwan, a non-NATO ally, would open up a third crisis for the military alliance, as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East rage on.
As a political analyst, I believe it is critical for NATO to strategize and be prepared for potential escalations, especially with the geopolitical tensions between the US and China. The timing Dr. Drummond pointed out is indeed concerning, and it is essential for the international community to closely monitor the situation. The implications of China seizing Taiwan could have far-reaching impacts, and it is crucial for NATO to maintain solidarity and readiness in the face of such threats.