Trump once belittled Rubio as “little Marco”. And Rubio once called Trump a “con artist”. However, the pair has mended, if not melded. What’s going on?
The Obstacles
An obscure rule prevents the President and Vice President from living in the same state.
But that is easily handled by one or the other moving. If it’s Marco, then another Republican Senate seat is up for grabs.
Assuming those obstacles are overcome, Rubio makes more much sense than Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio or Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, both of which would also open up a Senate seat.
If a senator does not complete a term in office, a state may select an individual to serve out the remainder of the term or until a special election is held.
The Case for Rubio
The Wall Street Journal comments How Rubio Went From ‘Little Marco’ to Trump’s VP Shortlist
Rubio’s backers have pitched the former president on his attributes, such as his being the son of Cuban immigrants. He is charismatic and can appeal to both working-class and professional-sector voters, including Hispanics, according to his advocates. He has domestic- and foreign-policy credentials, withstood the scrutiny of a presidential campaign in 2016, and—as is crucial for Trump—looks the part.
“He is bilingual. He is extremely quick on his feet, really, really sharp. He has a great personal story as well,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R., Fla.), a longtime Rubio ally. “One of the things that President Trump has been very clear about is that he wants somebody who, obviously in the worst-case scenario, could be president. Marco has all those things.”
Trump sees advantages to picking Rubio, people close to both men said, even as he hasn’t settled on a favorite, with a decision due by the time of the Republican convention in mid-July. He likes Rubio’s camera-friendly family, which includes four children, and thinks the fluent Spanish speaker could be an effective communicator on immigration. Trump has told people he likes how Rubio’s Cuban heritage makes him authentically anticommunist, as the former president seeks to paint Democrats as having been infected by the far left.
Some Republicans don’t see Rubio, whose political experience predates Trump’s, as the full-throated MAGA type as some others on Trump’s shortlist are, including Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio. Years before Trump emerged, Rubio was seen as a next-generation leader for the GOP who spoke in sunny, uplifting terms and espoused traditional views. But with Trump’s victory, he adapted in both substance and style.
Years ago Rubio criticized Trump’s calls for mass deportation; now he echoes the former president’s rhetoric. “This is an invasion of the country, and it needs to be dealt with dramatically,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in May.
Once a leading voice for defending Ukraine, Rubio earlier this year voted against legislation that included billions in security aid, slamming the overall bill as “moral extortion.” He has pushed economic populism, taking aim at the decadeslong hollowing out of American manufacturing jobs at the expense of cheap goods from China. He has been at the vanguard of the widening rift between Republicans and big business, accusing major corporations of not acting in the best interests of the country and proposing curbs on corporate stock buybacks.
He has also become a fierce defender of Trump. When the former president was convicted by a New York jury, Rubio called President Biden a “demented man propped up by wicked & deranged people willing to destroy our country to remain in power” and said it was time to “fight fire with fire.” Rubio voted to certify Biden’s 2020 win but recently declined to say if he would accept the results of the coming election. On Spanish-language television, he pushed back on criticism of Trump’s description that illegal immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the country.
The Republican Party is replete with critics turned Trump allies, including many on the vice presidential list. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the only Black Republican in the chamber, sharply criticized Trump’s views on race. Vance in 2016 deemed himself a “never Trump guy.”
Rubio called Trump a “con artist”—and worse. Asked about that now, Rubio says it was part of the heat of a campaign.
The Abortion Issue
I don’t think abortion will decide the election, but it could. In a very close election, many things could decide the election (or help decide the election).
Politico comments Rubio Spells Out his Position on Abortion.
Questioned — Rubio’s interview with CBS Miami’s Jim DeFede for a weekend election special found the senator pressed about whether he would favor a complete ban on abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest and human trafficking now that the Supreme Court has repealed Roe v. Wade.
Making it clear — Rubio said he favored such a ban, with the caveat that the issue should be dealt with by the states not the federal government. However, he also added that he would vote for exceptions because he recognized that not everyone shares his viewpoint.
What he said — “I am in favor of laws that protect human life. I do not believe that the dignity and the worth of human life is tied to the circumstances of their conception, but I recognize that’s not a majority position,” Rubio told DeFede. “This is not an easy issue. I never said this is an easy issue. It puts two fundamental rights in conflict — the right to choose of a woman and the right to live of an unborn human being.”
Reaction — Demings responded sharply on Twitter to the interview, writing that “Marco Rubio is obsessed with taking away our freedoms. Losing the right to choose means women’s lives are at risk, doctors could be thrown in jail, and victims of rape and incest forced to carry the seed of their rapist.”
Florida’s other senator — GOP Sen. Rick Scott, who is in charge of the Republican campaign operation to retake the Senate, took a different stance than Rubio when asked about abortion earlier this month. During an interview on Bloomberg, Scott said “the country is pro-life” while adding “the country is for reasonable restrictions and reasonable exceptions.” He said a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy was “reasonable” but he did add that there should be exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. “I think we all have to be compassionate about what these women are going through,” Scott said.
And the governor? — Where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stands at this point isn’t as clear. DeSantis said he was in favor of additional “pro-life protections” after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. He recently signed Florida’s ban on abortions after 15 weeks into law, but the governor has not articulated what other steps he would take or accept. During a press conference Tuesday, DeSantis said “the first thing” is to “defend what we’ve done,” a reference to the ongoing legal challenge to the new ban. “We want to make sure what we’ve done will stick,” said DeSantis, adding that the current law was “difficult to achieve.”
Tim Scott on Abortion
Michigan passed Proposition 3 which secures the right to reproductive freedom in Michigan, protecting abortion, prenatal care, birth control, and all reproductive health care. Scott would take that away.
Scott favors a constitutional amendment prohibiting abortion. That stance could cost Trump the state of Michigan and take Virginia out of play.
Heck, that stance could even cost Trump Pennsylvania.
Rubio is solidly anti-abortion but at least would leave it up to the states.
A constitutional amendment would have no chance, of course. But It would be a huge rally cry politically. Trump cannot afford Scott’s baggage on abortion. And Scott is a terrible speaker. That’s two strikes.
J.D. Vance on Abortion
In conservative Ohio, abortion rights activists passed a bill securing abortion with 57 percent approval.
The Hill commented JD Vance: Ohio’s Abortion Vote ‘Was a Gut Punch’
In a lengthy post online, Vance, who campaigned against the effort to ensure abortion access, attempted to parse out why the measure won with support from nearly 57 percent of voters.
“For pro lifers, last night was a gut punch. No sugar coating it,” he wrote.
Q: Did Vance learn anything? Change his mind?
A: Of course not. Here’s the deal: Old fogy white males fail to learn anything from history.
“The results in Ohio underscore what the vast majority of Americans believe: politicians should not interfere in decisions that should be between a woman and her doctor,” Vice President Harris said in a statement.
That is the only thing I recall ever agreeing with Kamala Harris on.
Trump would do well to pick a female VP running mate who is not a Neandertal on abortion.
Age and Other Things
Senator Marco Rubio is 53. Senator J.D. Vance is 39. Senator Tim Scott is 58. Tulsi Gabbard is 43.
Other than being the youngest, Vance offers nothing. A white male who want to abolish abortion brings nothing but huge negatives to the ticket.
In addition, Vance is the biggest MAGA in the group. That’s a decided disadvantage, assuming Trump would rather win than get adulations from the base.
Tim Scott is black. But in contrast to Rubio and Gabbard, he is a poor speaker coupled with a very discrediting stance on abortion.
Tulsi Gabbard Rings All Six Bells
Tusli is a woman, young, an amazing speaker, not MAGA, a person of color, and a moderate on abortion. She’s also attractive which may matter to a lot of men.
She rings six of six bells.
I believe Trump would win in a landslide if he picked Gabbard. The base would not like that pick, but so what? Is Trump seeking adulation or does he want to win?
I seriously don’t know.
Scott ticks precisely one bell. He’s black, Otherwise, Scott is all negative. I would be surprised if Trump was foolish enough to pick Scott.
I fail to see what, if anything ,Vance brings to the table. But I have not heard Vance speak. Perhaps I am missing something there, but otherwise Vance is a negative for at least 5 reasons.
Tulsi Gabbard Gives a Fabulous Speech at CPAC 2024
Please play that speech. It was electrifying. If you have already played it, do so again. I just did.
I discussed the speech on February 24, Tulsi Gabbard Gives a Fabulous Speech at CPAC 2024, What’s Next?
Some question what she brings to the table. For starters, she is a woman, without all the baggage, arrogance, and lighting rod qualities of Hillary.
Tulsi delivered an electrifying speech. Women are over half of the voting population.
Wikipedia notes Gabbard has generally supported legal abortion through the first 20 weeks of pregnancy, though her views on abortion have changed over time. That is a huge plus over the typical Republican Neandertal.
For more details, please see Wikipedia’s Political Opinions of Tulsi Gabbard.
She has switched opinions on a number of items, having even backed Bernie Sanders. The Republican base won’t like that, but so what, Trump was once a Democrat.
Where is the base going besides nowhere? The base will not decide the next election.
The more Trump can distance himself from the base, the better his chances.
Gabbard would be an excellent pick who would genuinely bring some energy to the ticket beyond the base.
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
I did a follow-up post on June 19. Please consider Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
The cost of rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 33 consecutive months. Young adults and blacks are priced out of a home and it shows up in the polls.
Voters under the age of 35 favor Trump. In 2020 they were over 80% for Biden. But they have their limits.
I do not think abortion will swing the election. But it could, in Michigan and Arizona. See The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly
Tulsi is the best qualified VP pick to take abortion of the table, appeal to women, appeal to people of color, and appeal to young voters who may be for Trump but not enthusiastically so.
Can Biden Physically and Mentally Last All the Way to November?
On June 16, I asked Can Biden Physically and Mentally Last All the Way to November?
The short answer is not realistically. Yet that does not imply Biden will drop out. The long answer is complex. So, let’s honestly assess what’s happening.
Biden is increasingly incompetent and obviously so. Polls show Trump can and should (does not mean will) beat Biden. But what happens if Biden is forced out of the campaign?
I do not know how likely that is. However, it is very clear the odds are increasingly likely. Whether or not Trump can beat an alternate Democrat candidate depends on who that would be.
Trump must pick a VP candidate first, putting him at a first mover disadvantage. The only way to mitigate that first-mover disadvantage is for Trump to a VP running mate who rings all of the bells.
If not Tulsi, then who? Rubio would make a reasonable second choice.