Exit Polls show AfD will easily win Thuringia. Saxony is close. AfD is expected to win the state election in Brandenburg later this month. Next year, Germany may be ungovernable.
It generally takes at least 5 percent of the vote to have any member in Germany parliament. If the above numbers hold, FDP and the Green party will have no representation in Thuringia.
Die Linke (The Left) will get about 11.5 percent of the vote down from 19.5 percent.
The Guardian has Live Election Results.
A far-right party became the biggest force in a German state parliament for the first time since the second world war in one of two closely watched elections on Sunday, exit polls showed, while a separate new populist force on the left [BSW] established a firm foothold in the country’s political landscape.
Voters in the ex-communist east made their dissatisfaction with Germany’s mainstream political parties deafeningly clear, putting the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in the top spot in Thuringia with between 30.5 and 33.5% of the vote, and second place in Saxony with 30-31.5%, according to exit polls.
“It is a historic success for us. It is the first time we have become the strongest force in a state election,” a triumphant Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, said. “It is a requiem for this coalition (in Berlin).”
The results in Saxony and Thuringia proved disastrous for the three ruling parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left-led federal government, with each scoring in the single digits in both states one year before Germany holds its next general election.
Although the outcome had been predicted for months, the centrist parties proved powerless over the course of the year to reverse the trend and the results sent shock waves through the political landscape.
BSW’s Fabio De Masi has called the new party’s performance “historic,” calling for new federal elections.
Saxony
I was hoping tor a total wipeout of the Greens but it appears they will hang on.
Note that Die Linke (The Left) will get wiped out in Saxony due to the 5 percent threshold requirement.
DW provides an interesting discussion of the German Political Parties.
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU)
Party Color: BlackBlue
The CDU/CSU pledge to reduce corporate taxes and benefit high-income earners.
On migration, the CDU/CSU stresses its commitment to the fundamental right to asylum, but they want tighter restrictions on who can apply for asylum and they stress the need to deport refugees who have committed criminal offenses in Germany.
The CDU/CSU wants Germany to play a leading role in world affairs. They see Europe and the United States as Germany’s traditional partners.
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
Party Color: Red
The SPD’s core issue has always been social policy such as a minimum wage. The SPD aims to tax the rich while easing the tax burden on low and medium-earners.
Green Party
Party Color: Green
Their supporters marched for everything from ending nuclear power to gay rights — while maintaining the key plank of environmental protection.
The Greens put an emphasis on infrastructure development and plan to finance it all through debt, with the argument that debt is less of a burden in the long run than decaying infrastructure.
Environmental concerns remain core: Ranging from the phase-out of combustion engines in cars to renewable energy to create electricity and heating.
In terms of social policy, the Greens advocate a mandatory minimum pension payout subsidized through an increase in tax revenue, while a new system is established to which civil servants would also contribute. They also support a “guaranteed income,” an increase in the minimum wage. They want to ease pressure on low and medium-earners by raising the amount of income exempt from income tax. The difference is to be made up by raising taxes for higher earners.
In terms of foreign policy, they want a tough values-based approach that more directly criticizes China and Russia for human rights violations.
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
Party Color: Yellow
Personal freedom, and restricting the power of the state, have been the party’s guiding principles.
The FDP wants to combat climate change by promoting new technologies and it has promised to accelerate Germany’s sluggish digitalization drive.
The party’s program is founded on the principles of individual freedom and civil rights. It has always campaigned for more tax cuts. The FDP opposes expropriations, rent control, or rent caps and wants to see an increase in owner-occupied homes.
The FDP wants more privatization, opposes a speed limit on the autobahn, and believes that technology will sort out the adverse effects of climate change.
It would like to introduce a statutory equity pension based on the Swedish model rather than prop up the current pension system from the state coffers.
The FDP is a pro-European party and wants to enable skilled workers to migrate to Germany under a points system based on the Canadian model. War refugees are to be granted temporary protection status quickly with minimum bureaucracy and should return home swiftly after the relevant conflict has ended.
The party is critical of Russia and China and supports Germany’s partnership with the United States and its role in the European Union.
Die Linke (Left Party)
Party Color: Magenta
The Left is the only major German party that rejects military missions abroad.[I question if this is still true]. It also wants NATO to be dissolved and the minimum wage to be raised dramatically. Some political scientists still see the Left as a radical party that ultimately seeks to overturn the capitalist economic order, but the party itself actually only advocates stronger market regulation, stronger rental caps, and more social investment.
The Left Party rejects deportations, wants to dissolve the EU border protection agency, Frontex and demands asylum for poverty, environmental, and climate refugees. It wants to give all long-term residents the right to vote and to stand for election on the federal level.
It wants a higher minimum wage and to lower the retirement age and introduce a “solidarity minimum pension” financed through tax revenue, paid for by tax increases for the very rich.
AfD Alternative for Germany
Party Color: Light blue
The AfD wants to prevent refugees from heading to Germany at all. The party wants to immediately deport anyone whose application for political asylum is rejected.
The party insists on the primacy of “traditional” German culture and rejects Islam as a part of German society. It also questions the notion that climate change is man-made, wants to uphold family values and opposes diversity and gender issues.
The AfD wants to limit NATO’s operational area to the territory of its member states and replace the EU with a new organization.
Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW)
The Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance is left-wing on economic issues: social justice, job security, higher wages, generous benefits and a revamped tax system. Close to the far-right on issues like immigration and gender diversity.
Foreign policy: The BSW is critical of sending weapons to Ukraine and its supporters in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and blames NATO for escalating the conflict. In reference to the Israel–Hamas war, Wagenknecht described the Gaza Strip as an “open-air prison.”
Climate policy: Opposes the shift toward renewable energy.
Coalition Math
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Thuringia said it will seek talks to explore the possibility of forming a state government, reiterating that there will be no cooperation with the AfD.
Yeah, good luck with that. Die Linke want to dissolve the border while AfD and BSW want to stop immigration.
It will be impossible to get a coalition majority without AfD or BSW, both of which are staunchly anti-immigration.
I fail to see how any sensible coalitions can form given this mix of platforms in either Thuringia or Saxony.
The Brandenburg election is on September 22 2024. AfD is expected to win.
Conclusion
At least three German states will be ungovernable by the end of September.
Federal elections in Germany will be held on September 28 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.
France is Now Ungovernable Following a Pyrrhic Victory for the Left-Green Alliance
On July 7, 2024 I noted France is Now Ungovernable Following a Pyrrhic Victory for the Left-Green Alliance
It’s September 1 and France is still struggling to determine a Prime Minister.
If AfD and BSW do as well as polls suggest, Germany may be ungovernable as well. This is what happens when you collude to keep the winner out of power.
Addendum
A reader notes Sonstige means “everyone else”. Wikipedia described Sonstige as a left-wing, progressive, anti-military party.