If, you are a Democrat, the tendency will be to underplay the importance. Republicans will do the opposite. The truth is in between, but advantage Trump.
Powerful Contrast
That is a very powerful set of contrasting images. Trump appears strong, poised, defiant, and confident.
His political instinct was amazing and he was lucky that the press captured a perfect image.
You are sure to see that image in numerous ad campaigns, right next to a feeble image of Biden.
Republican Unity
Republicans, divided by the Haley faction, have rallied around Trump.
The Wall Street Journal reports Nikki Haley now plans to speak at the GOP convention. She wasn’t included in the original program. The image of Haley at the convention intensify calls for unity.
It would behoove Trump to grab this idea and run with it. He still needs a good VP and avoid the abortion trap as much as possible.
Sympathy Vote
Those deciding between Trump and Kennedy have a reason, or at least an excuse to go with Trump.
Those deciding between Biden and Kennedy may find a reason to go for Kennedy.
The Secret Service handing of this has been terrible. Biden picked the Secret Service director, Kimberly Cheatle, in 2022.
In a close election little things matters.
Elon Musk
Republican National Convention
The Republican National Convention kicks off Monday in Milwaukee at 12:45 PM Central. Security will be high.
Emotions are already strong and images of Trump holding up his fist will be on huge display.
Typically the Vice President candidate gives a speech on on Wednesday and the President on Thursday (the last day), but we still do not know who that is. I suspect it’s between Florida Senator Marco Rubio and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
The other two names on Trump’s Short list are South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. Of that lot, I think Rubio is the best choice and Vance the worst.
Trump is likely to get a boost from the assassination and another one from the convention. And it’s likely we have not yet seen the entire boost from the debate because there have not been many polls.
Democrat Chaos
Whereas Republicans have a good opportunity to unite, the Democrats are in a state of confused panic.
Forbes reports 20 Democrats in Congress have called on Biden to step aside. That was two days ago.
Four days ago, NBC reported ‘It’s already disastrous’: Biden campaign fundraising takes a major hit
Nate Silver comments “The early indications are that the White House will use this as another excuse to deflect the question and hope to run out the clock. But the White House is pretty clearly interested in what’s best for Biden’s ego and their own sense of self-preservation and not what’s best for the country. If Trump’s position is strengthened by this, even marginally, that’s all the more reason to gamble on an option with higher upside.”
The “option with a higher upside” means dump Biden.
Excuse to Run Out the Clock
Silver commented “Uncertainty tends to freeze people in place, especially when abetted by fear. They sometimes become convinced that they’re trapped in a doom loop from which there’s no escape, even when there’s an exit ramp that they’re too myopic to recognize.“
Sliver linked to the New York Times article Doing Nothing About Biden Is the Riskiest Plan of All
If anything, the Secret Service handing of the assassination attempt is another reason to abandon Biden. But here the Democrats are, hiding their heads, at least until the next major gaffe by Biden. Don’t worry, that won’t be long.
Biden Halts ‘Trump Is Hitler’ Ads After Assassination Attempt
ZeroHedge reports Biden Halts ‘Trump Is Hitler’ Ads After Assassination Attempt
Joe Biden is “pausing all outbound communications and working to pull down our television ads as quickly as possible,” a campaign official told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday morning.
Biden’s anti-Trump claims have rightfully led critics to question whether this heavily partisan rhetoric has incited violence against Trump.
This rhetoric often conflates Trump with dictators, including Adolf Hitler, and suggests he would end “Democracy” if elected.
Betting Odds
Following the assassination, many people on my blog and also on Twitter made comments that Trump is now assured of winning.
This is foolish talk. I think the above chart is in the ballpark. I would guess that’s a tad low, say 75 percent.
But 25 percent, even 15 percent is something, not nothing. Trump has a propensity to put his foot in his mouth. Fortunately, for Trump, Biden’s propensity to do the same is now much higher.
For that reason alone, Democrats should change horses. And they might. I still believe they will. And if they do, take the above odds and throw them out the window.
Yes, I am aware of some polls show Biden doing even better vs Kamala. Throw that thought away too. It may be true, but there’s a strong chance it isn’t. We really will not know unless and until Democrats decide to switch.
Republicans Focused, Democrats Not
For now, Republicans are focused. Democrats are busy pulling ads.
Biden has to deal with this: The Secret Service Failed its Only Mission. Biden Should Fire the Director
The ramifications of a disastrous debate are still not tallied but the initial results are not good if you are a Democrat.
For discussion, please see Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
I created some charts from a new post-debate poll that shows Biden is weakening fast.
Rising Unemployment
The Unemployment Rate Bottomed a Year Ago, Who’s Impacted the Most?
The unemployment rate may be low at 4.1 percent but it’s up 0.7 percentage points from the low and headed in the wrong direction.
What About Recession?
Finally, Biden has to deal with an economy that is cooling fast.
For discussion, please see Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
I’ve seen enough. A recession has started. Let’s discuss starting with a very good indicator that has few false positives and no false negatives.
As for who’s most impacted by the rising unemployment rate, it’s young voters and blacks. They are abandoning Biden in droves.
Things look increasingly good for Trump, but it’s not over until it’s over.